{"id":1079007,"date":"2024-06-20T08:11:22","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T08:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/?p=1079007"},"modified":"2024-07-11T06:33:17","modified_gmt":"2024-07-11T06:33:17","slug":"trump-v-biden-2024-handicapping-the-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/2024\/06\/20\/trump-v-biden-2024-handicapping-the-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump v. Biden 2024: Handicapping the Presidential Election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The presidential race is still poised to be decided by the six most competitive states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"FILE<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AP PHOTO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, left, speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas, June 9, 2024, and President Joe Biden speaks at White House in Washington, June 4, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With about five months to go until the votes are counted, the presidential election<\/a> is close. Just as it has been for many months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our first reassessment of the electoral landscape since early January<\/a>, we are changing the ratings for a few states in the presidential race, but only for a handful of states on the fringes of the competitive battlefield<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>What Trump and Biden Need to Do Ahead of First Debate<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOW PLAYING<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Election: Trump Is Populism Without Principles, Says Paul Ryan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These Quotes From Historic Presidential Debates Should Whet Your Whistle for the Rematch Between Trump and Biden<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The presidential race is still poised to be decided by the six states we rate as Toss-ups: Arizona<\/u><\/a>, Georgia<\/a>, Michigan<\/a>, Nevada<\/a>, Pennsylvania<\/a> and Wisconsin<\/a>, plus the Omaha-based 2nd congressional district of Nebraska<\/a>, which, under state law, has its own electoral vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden and Trump Campaign in Swing States<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\"FREELAND,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

View All 34 Images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding together the states leaning heavily or modestly to their party, the Republicans have 235 electoral votes, while the equivalent number for Democrats is 225. Since 270 electoral votes is the magic number to win the presidential race, the remainder \u2013 78 electoral votes in the Toss-up category \u2013 will likely decide the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPINION: High-Stakes Election, Low-Stakes Veep<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on current polling and reporting, the most plausible path for Democratic President Joe Biden<\/a> is to win the three northern Toss-up states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus the one competitive electoral vote in Nebraska. That would bring Biden\u2019s total to precisely 270. This seems like Biden\u2019s best shot because his polling has been holding up better in these three northern states than in the Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the most plausible Republican path to victory would be to flip those Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada \u2013 each of which was won by Biden in 2020 \u2013 plus any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, our assessment is based on reporting with state and national political observers, and the categories we use are Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Toss-up, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic and Safe Democratic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one state that remains closest to the Toss-up category, but still outside it, is North Carolina. In this analysis, North Carolina remains Lean Republican. Should Biden pull off an upset in North Carolina, which has 16 electoral votes, it would be a major boost for his candidacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As usual in our analyses, the seats are listed in descending order from those most likely to go Republican to those most likely to go Democratic. (The exceptions are the Safe Republican and Safe Democratic categories, which are listed alphabetically.) With this analysis, we have made some modest shifts to reorder the states within these categories, but the broad contours of the presidential race remain much the same as they were six months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A wild card is whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or other third-party candidates make the ballot in battleground states, potentially affecting the result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The states we\u2019ve shifted from one category to another tend to be on the periphery of the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most notable recategorization we\u2019ve made concerns two Biden-won states, Virginia and Minnesota; both move from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic. While we still think Biden is positioned to win both states, polling shows narrower-than-expected, mid-single-digit margins for Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have also shifted New Mexico from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, amid concerns about Biden\u2019s ability to maintain the traditional Democratic edge with Hispanic voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These shifts don\u2019t mean that any of these states will join the top-tier ranks of Republican targets in the presidential race; in fact, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we eventually shifted some or all of them back in the Democratic direction as the race develops and as disaffected Democratic voters \u201ccome home\u201d to Biden. But we think shifting them modestly in the GOP\u2019s direction at this point is prudent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one instance where we have shifted a state in the Democratic direction is Maine. Like Nebraska, Maine allocates two electoral votes for the statewide presidential winner and one for each of its two congressional districts. We already had Maine\u2019s Portland-based 1st District as Safe Democratic, and we\u2019ve now shifted the pair of statewide electoral votes from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. The more rural 2nd District remains at Lean Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Republican side of the ledger, our only change is to shift Ohio from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s our full ordering of the states, with their electoral votes in parentheses. We\u2019ve marked the states that have changed categories in this assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safe Republican (148)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alabama (9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaska (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arkansas (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Idaho (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indiana (11)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kentucky (8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Louisiana (8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mississippi (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Missouri (10)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montana (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nebraska, except District 2 (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Dakota (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ohio (17) (Shift from Likely Republican)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oklahoma (7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Carolina (9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Dakota (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tennessee (11)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utah (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

West Virginia (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wyoming (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likely Republican (70)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Texas (40)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida (30)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lean Republican (17)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Maine District 2 (1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Carolina (16)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total Electoral Votes Leaning to Republicans: 235<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

READ: Trump\u2019s Enablers Put the Country at Risk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toss-Up (78)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Georgia (16)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arizona (11)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevada (6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wisconsin (10)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michigan (15)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pennsylvania (19)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nebraska District 2 (1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total Electoral Votes Leaning to Democrats: 225<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Lean Democratic (27)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New Hampshire (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virginia (13) (Shift from Likely Democratic)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minnesota (10) (Shift from Likely Democratic)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likely Democratic (5)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New Mexico (5) (Shift from Safe Democratic)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safe Democratic (193)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

California (54)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colorado (10)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Connecticut (7)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delaware (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

District of Columbia (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hawaii (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Illinois (19)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maine, statewide (2) (Shift from Likely Democratic)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maine District 1 (1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maryland (10)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massachusetts (11)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Jersey (14)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York (28)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oregon (8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rhode Island (4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vermont (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington (12)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The presidential race is still poised to be decided by the six most competitive states. AP PHOTO Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, left, speaks at a campaign rally in Las Vegas, June 9, 2024, and President Joe Biden speaks at White House in Washington, June 4, 2024. With about five months to go […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1079007"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1079007"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1079007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1079027,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1079007\/revisions\/1079027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1079007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1079007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/8.217.125.72\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1079007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}